Did Messi deserve his 8th Ballon d’Or? Here’s how he beat out Haaland to the prestigious award 🏆

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On October 30, Messi found himself on top of the world once again winning his 8th career Ballon d’Or. 🌟

There has been much controversy behind this; many believe that this award has Haaland’s name written all over it. 😅

So, who really deserved it more? We provide all the objective reasoning behind Messi’s victory, as well as our personal opinion. 👇

Once again, he’s on top of the world.

We’re only talking about Lionel Messi, of course. Awarded with his eighth career Ballon d’Or, it marks a milestone of what has been pure dominance on his end, but it’s also an important reminder that, despite his age, his magic has far from diminished.

Nevertheless, there will always be some sort of controversy.

Manchester City sensation Erling Haaland starred in his first season in England, setting a new Premier League goalscoring record for a single season while netting an incredible 52 times as Pep Guardiola’s team won the Premier League, FA Cup and UEFA Champions League treble.

Meanwhile, another City star did his thing last season. Rodri played a pivotal role in all that success, including scoring the winner in the Champions League final.

Over in Paris, Kylian Mbappé continued to thrive, playing a direct part in 50 goals in all competitions for PSG. Let’s not forget his stellar World Cup campaign in Qatar, culminating in a historic hattrick in the final.

Finally, Jude Bellingham flourished at Borussia Dortmund to get his big move to Real Madrid, where he has already reached superstar status. I mean, the boy is already doing things worthy of being a club legend, including a match winning goal in his debut El Clasico.

But none of these elite ballers took home the prize.

In this 28th edition of the Plei newsletter, I try to explain the reasoning behind Messi receiving his historic eighth Ballon d’Or, and I also provide my personal opinion on whether he deserved it or not. 👇

🏆🇦🇷 The obvious reason…

The trophy that had eluded him his entire career was finally in his hands.

Leo Messi played a part in 4 World Cups for Argentina and came as close as a final appearance in 2014, which ended in a cruel 1-0 loss to a dominant Germany side. Many argue the debate would have been over if he had taken care of business way back then, but that’s a topic for another time.

Messi has never had it easy in his time with La Albiceleste. They’re a team that, although forever blessed with superstar attacking players from generation to generation, they more often than not fail to look as world class on paper as other national teams like Brazil, France and Spain.

Even when they brought arguably their best squad in decades to Qatar, one that went 36 games unbeaten (one short of matching a record set by Italy), their lineup on paper still did not compare to some of their rivals.

Fortunately, if this tournament taught us anything about football, it’s that the whole ‘on paper’ thing means nothing. Maybe just in the video games it means something.

We know how it all ended, so let’s dive into the stats that put Messi on a high pedestal to be awarded his eighth Ballon d’Or.

• Scored seven goals and assisted a further three across Argentina’s seven matches in Qatar

• Those 10 goals made up two-thirds of Argentina’s total (15).

• One of six players with at least 10 goal involvements at a single World Cup since assists were first tracked

• Rest of the list includes Eusebio (10, 1966), Pele (10, 1970), Maradona (10, 1986), Mbappé (10, 2022) and Gerd Muller (13, 1970). Just Fontaine (13 goals, 1958) and Sándor Kocsis (11 goals, 1954) also hit 10+ goal involvements prior to assists were tracked, and they were all goals.

• First player in the history of the FIFA World Cup to score in the group stage, last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final (he had previously never managed to score a knockout goal at a World Cup, despite playing 756 minutes of knockout football at the tournament and attempting 23 shots)

• He is one of only five players – along with Jairzinho, Just Fontaine, Salvatore Schillaci and Davor Suker – to have scored in six matches at one edition of the finals.

• At 35, Messi led the 2022 World Cup for shots (32), shots on target (18), chances created from open play (17), fouls won (22), and overall xG (6.63).

• His open play xG was 2.69, third highest behind France strikers Mbappé (3.62) and Olivier Giroud (3.49).

If you’re not familiar with ‘xG’, it means expected goals. It’s a statistic used to measure the quality of a chance, basically the probability of a shot resulting in a goal. The higher the number, the more good chances you had throughout a match, whether you converted them or not.

In case you’re confused as to why the overall xG is way higher than the open play one, it’s because of the 4 penalties that Messi scored throughout the tournament. Penalties are obviously high-quality scoring chances, which will always bump your expected goals up.

• Messi was involved in more open-play sequences leading to a shot than any other player in the competition (with his 53 four more than Mbappé in second place)

• He was level with Antoine Griezmann for big chances created at seven

• Mbappé was the only player to have more touches in the opposition area than Messi (68 to 45)

🤔 What about his PSG season?

This is where many critics jumped to in order to argue that Messi didn’t deserve the Ballon d’Or. After all, a player plays the majority of their football with their club, so it makes sense why you’d at least expect there to be something worth mentioning when it comes to Messi in his last season in a PSG shirt.

Luckily, there is. But was it enough to warrant giving him the most prestigious prize a footballer can earn? Let’s take a look at the numbers in order to come to a conclusion.

Long story short, Messi was enjoying a pretty fruitful 22/23 season prior to the World Cup. The following stats lay this out very well.

• Messi averaged 1.2 expected goal involvements (either goals or assists) per 90 minutes from open play

• Across Europe’s top 5 leagues, Messi had the most assists in all competitions with 14 (10 came in Ligue 1) before the World Cup

• Despite playing 1,290 fewer minutes, he had already equaled his assist tally and surpassed his goal tally from the previous season

• In the 18 matches Messi played in for PSG in the buildup to the WC, he averaged 83 touches, 1.44 goal involvements, 2.81 chances created, 0.98 big chances created, 4.25 shots and 3.22 successful dribbles per 90 minutes

Of course, these stats make it seem like Messi’s PSG season was nothing less than successful. Unfortunately, there were plenty of hardships, especially after he returned to the French capital following Argentina’s World Cup celebrations.

His numbers dipped slightly in the subsequent 22 matches he played in for PSG across all competitions, and it was put on heavy display after Bayern dumped the Parisians out of the UCL in the Round of 16. PSG didn’t manage a single goal in both legs.

They were also eliminated from the French Cup in early February at the hands of Marseille. Messi played the full 90 but couldn’t inspire his side to a quarter-final berth.

Of course, Neymar’s long-term injury didn’t help PSG’s case, but the way PSG played throughout the second half of the season was nothing short of inexcusable.

But Messi shouldn’t hold too much blame. The team was visibly lacking organization, unity and chemistry, and it reflected in many of these outings. No player can single handedly inspire a team to a victory week in and week out. On occasion, yes, as Messi has been known to do that throughout his career. But asking him to do it in this PSG side and at his age? It was never going to happen.

Despite it all, he still finished the 22/23 season with stats that kept him on pace with some of Europe’s best performers, which we laid out below.

• Only four players in the top five European leagues played a part in more goals (41) than Messi last season (Haaland - 61, Mbappe - 50, Mohamed Salah – 46 and Vinicius Junior - 42)

• As for assists, he managed 20, which was only second best to De Bruyne’s 28

• Messi created 88 chances from open play, the fourth-most in the top five leagues and he was third for big chances created

• Only Vinicius (196) had more completed dribbles than Messi (126)

These types of numbers simply have to be applauded, especially if you watched any PSG games last season. At times, Messi was simply ignored, and was sometimes forced to drop all the way back to receive the ball to get a decent attack going. If you watched him at Barcelona in his last couple of seasons there, you probably recall a similar situation.

Nonetheless, Messi did what he could, and when he pulled off his magic, it was spectacular. And he won Ligue 1 to show for it. But again, was it enough for his eighth Ballon d’Or over Haaland?

Let’s dive into the Norwegian’s mad first season with Man City to find out.

🤯 Haaland debut season madness

It was nothing short of a fever dream to witness what Haaland did upon stepping onto the field for the first time in his new colors. There’s a reason why he became a serious contender for the Ballon d’Or and why even right now people argue it should’ve been him over Messi.

If you follow football even a tiny bit, you know it was all about goals for the Norwegian. Many spectacular finishes, but many straightforward ones that you’d expect any number 9 to put away, too.

Here are the key stats that snuck Haaland into early conversations for the Ballon d’Or back in October 2022.

• Haaland started the 22/23 Premier League season scoring 14 non-penalty goals in just his first nine games (7.55 non-penalty xG)

• 1.67 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, which had him at #1 across the top five leagues in mid-October

• Fastest player to reach 15 goals in the Premier League, breaking Andrew Cole’s record and doing it six games quicker

• 3 hat tricks in three consecutive Premier League home games

Two months into the Premier League season, and it was already madness. But the worst thing that could have happened to Haaland actually came true. The Norwegian had to sit through an entire World Cup and witness Messi put up one game-winning performance after the other to win the trophy, a success that simply can’t be ruled out when it comes to deciding who wins the Ballon d’Or.

Fortunately, Haaland didn’t let that stop him come January. The following stats tell the story.

• Haaland ended the 22/23 campaign with 36 PL goals, a new league record for a single season (broke record set by Alan Shearer and Andrew Cole)

• 52 goals across all competitions, also a record for a single player for a PL club in one season (34% of City’s total goal tally of 151)

• Finished the season with six hat tricks (including a 5-goal performance against RB Leipzig in the UCL)

• 22/23 PL season: 36 goals, 28.7 xG, 123 shots, 0.23 xG per shot, 2,776 minutes played

These ridiculous goal scoring stats inevitably helped City lift their first-ever Champions League trophy, their seventh Premier League trophy in 12 years and a seventh FA Cup. A historic treble; it’s safe to say that they would not have achieved it without Haaland’s incredible abilities in front of goal.

A player with this much of an impact on a club that was already one of the best in the world prior to his arrival cannot be overlooked when it comes to the most important individual award in world football. It’s blatantly obvious that the Norwegian’s signing was the missing piece of a well-oiled, yet confusing puzzle for Pep Guardiola. They’d been dominating domestically even before the Spaniard arrived, but even with the squad he inherited and drastically improved after every season, he still could not break City’s UCL curse and win the trophy once and for all.

Haaland comes in and he finally does it, in treble fashion no less.

So why did Messi win the Ballon d’Or over him? Many argue that it was because of the way he slowed down a bit towards the end of last season.

He failed to score in some of the most crucial matches, including the FA Cup semifinal against Sheffield United and the final against Manchester United. He also misfired against Real Madrid in both legs of their UCL semi-final. City scored five goals across the two fixtures; Haaland didn’t play a part in any of those goals, something that is rarely the case when City routs an opponent.

And of course, he didn’t score in the final against Inter Milan.

Keep in mind that these aren’t my arguments, I’m simply restating the reasoning that many have given as to why Haaland didn’t eventually go on to win the Ballon d’Or.

🗣️ The verdict

It’s hard to disagree that Haaland would have won the Ballon d’Or had he scored at least one or two goals against Real Madrid and/or Inter Milan. Scoring against opponents of that caliber in high stakes games are hardly overlooked in discussions about who the best players in the world are.

Unfortunately, for the Norwegian, it wasn’t meant to be at the end of the day.

I’m ready for the criticism, but personally, I think Messi deserved to win the Ballon d’Or. But it wasn’t for the reasons I laid out in the section above.

The argument of Haaland misfiring in crucial games is irrelevant because his goals earlier on in the season were the reason why City got this far in the first place. It also paints the false picture that he simply shut down in the tail end of the season. Not true, either, as he kept scoring consistently in the remaining Premier League fixtures.

That being said, I don’t believe that Messi deserved to win it because Haaland failed to capitalize in the big games, I believe Messi deserved it because - whether he actually scored or assisted for PSG or not - he was a threat regardless. Again, it does go back to Messi being the more well-rounded player. He can start an attack and finish one, and he manages to create chances out of literally nothing.

Not exactly too fair for Haaland, as he is the best striker in the world and his positioning also makes him a consistent threat throughout 90 minutes, but I stand behind the idea that the Ballon d’Or should go to the player with the most overall visible impact on his team, regardless of the trophies or the final statistics.

Many football fans like to call this the ‘eye test’. Messi passes all day with flying colors.

Haaland rightfully won the Gerd Muller Trophy at the Ballon d’Or ceremony for being the best striker of the year. And scoring the most goals is really what that award is for, right?

My verdict is as follows. Messi deserved it for his overall impact on the field across 90 minutes for both Argentina and PSG. He didn’t deserve it solely for the World Cup victory. I’m also not even considering what he did in his first half-season for Inter Miami, as much as it probably did sway some journalists to choose Messi.

Haaland wasn’t far off in my opinion; for me, Messi just barely edged him.

He doesn’t need to, but based on the way journalists decide who to vote for, Haaland will unfortunately have to add some new elements into his game if he wants to win a Ballon d’Or.

Regardless, he’ll get his first one soon enough.

That’s it for the 28th edition of our newsletter! 😅

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